01 July 2026

Building the Analytical Backbone of Brazil’s Green Transition

On 18 and 19 June 2026, Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and PAGE brought together economists and policymakers in Brasília for a workshop on integrating environmental and climate considerations into macroeconomic modelling. The event is part of a broader partnership that is helping Brazil show the world that ecological transformation and economic growth go hand in hand.

Brazil has made a strategic choice: protecting its forests, decarbonizing its energy system, and reshaping its economy can simultaneously create jobs, increase incomes, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This vision sits at the centre of Brazil’s Ecological Transformation Plan (ETP), launched in 2023, which sets out a comprehensive pathway toward a low-carbon economy and emissions neutrality by 2025.

But making this vision a reality requires evidence and tools that can translate complex policy packages into measurable projections of economic, social, and environmental outcomes. That is precisely where PAGE comes in.

PAGE's Role in Brazil's Transformation

PAGE has been working alongside Brazil’s federal government to strengthen the analytical foundations of the ETP. Its core contribution has been the development of the macroeconomic modelling tools that help policymakers assess, design and implement green economic policies. A key output of this collaboration is a dynamic, multisectoral macroeconomic model developed in partnership between the Ministry of Finance, PAGE (led by UNEP) and the Institute of Economics of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (IE-UFRJ).

The model found that the full implementation of the ETP could generate around two million new jobs by 2035, increase annual GDP growth by an average of 0.8 percentage points through 2035, and raise per capita income by more than 4 percentage points by 2050. At the same time, the model demonstrates how the plan could accelerate Brazil’s decarbonization pathway while supporting the country’s goal of emissions neutrality by 2050

Beyond the ETP, PAGE supports modelling for Brazil’s National Circular Economy Strategy with the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), and, in partnership with the Ministry of Finance, two additional models — one applying the PAGE/UFRJ green model to support the National Bioeconomy Plan, and a just-transition assessment model. Together, these initiatives are helping build a strong evidence base for sustainable policymaking across government institutions.

From Modelling Results to Building Capacity

PAGE’s support for Brazil also builds the human and institutional capacity to continue advancing the country’s just transition plans. The two-day workshop, organized by PAGE and Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, was held in Brasília and focused on building the technical capacity to incorporate environmental and climate variables into the macroeconomic models that government teams use day-to-day.

The event brought together 28 public-sector professionals from institutions including the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Brazil, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econômica Federal, the National Treasury Secretariat, BNDES, and MDIC, alongside expert presenters and representatives from the ILO, UNEP, and UNITAR. It marked the first in a series of capacity-building activities that PAGE and the Ministry of Finance will deliver through the end of 2026.

Addressing the Data Challenge

The workshop combined technical presentations with practical exercises across four thematic areas. The sessions explored how climate variables are already affecting inflation in Brazil, and why current macroeconomic models need to fully capture those impacts. Participants also examined the data infrastructure required for green economic modelling, agricultural GDP projections across different climate and land-use scenarios, and practical approaches to integrating climate shocks into the semi-structural models used by economic teams.

A challenge that came up was the scarcity of timely, granular, Brazil-specific data for this kind of modelling: a bottleneck that PAGE aims to help the country to address through sustained dialogue with data-producing institutions as part of the ongoing capacity-building cycle.

Looking Ahead

The workshop is the first step in a cycle that will continue through 2026 with mentoring and training sessions, working groups for data and methodological exchange, a dialogue track with data-producing institutions, and a community of practice in green modelling in Brazil that will sustain PAGE results beyond the project cycle.

Brazil is well positioned to benefit from the global transition to low-carbon economies. Realizing that opportunity will depend not only on policies, but on the analytical tools and institutional capacity needed to guide them. Through its partnership with the Ministry of Finance, the MDIC and other national institutions, PAGE is helping build a foundation, ensuring that Brazil’s ecological transformation is informed by evidence and equipped for long-term success.

Building the Analytical Backbone of Brazil’s Green Transition

PAGE's Role in Brazil's Transformation

From Modelling Results to Building Capacity

Addressing the Data Challenge

Looking Ahead

Funding Partners

Growing, Greening and Creating Jobs in Rwanda

Construindo a base analítica da transição verde do Brasil