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04 September 2026

Modelling Morocco's Just Transition: The First Provisional Results

In July 2026, representatives of ministries responsible for planning, energy transition, employment and skills, finance, industry and investment—together with workers’ and employers’ organisations and technical partners, such as the ILO and Morocco’s High Commission for Planning (HCP)—met in Rabat to examine something that did not exist a year ago: a working model of Morocco’s just transition, a set of simulated policy scenarios, and a first report to analyse the results.  

The Just Transition Assessment Model (JTAM-Morocco) is a dynamic input-output model linking the economy, energy and the environment, developed by the High Commission for Planning with support from PAGE and the Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS). It follows the methodology set out in the ILO’s 2018 guide on measuring and modelling the employment and social outcomes of climate and sustainable development policies, and draws on Morocco’s national accounts, energy balances and emissions by economic sector, which is what allows the results to be read sector by sector, not only for the economy as a whole. 

The model sits at the centre of a long-standing collaboration. Since 2020, PAGE has supported Morocco on just fiscal policy, circular economy, sustainable energy access and industrial competitiveness, areas that the Just Transition Assessment Model allows to be assessed within one framework rather than one at a time. 

Climate policy scenarios and what they mean for jobs

Since 2025, the model has been adapted to the Moroccan context, national teams trained to work with it, and available national data integrated. Four climate policy options were then simulated and compared with a baseline scenario: renewable energy expansion, improved energy efficiency, carbon pricing, and a combination of the three. The workshop brought those provisional results, along with a first-draft report presenting them, to national stakeholders. 

The simulations show how each of the four options could affect employment, economic activity, greenhouse gas emissions, energy imports, the trade balance, and the production structure at national and sectoral levels. Participants confirmed the value of an integrated framework that examines economy, energy, environment, and employment together, rather than through separate exercises. The carbon pricing option was additionally tested across a range of design choices, including how revenues are brought back into the economy. 

Looking beyond job numbers

The workshop connected those first results with a wider range of national expertise. The feedback collected will be consolidated and incorporated by the HCP, with PAGE support, into a revised report, strengthening the interpretation of employment and just transition impacts and clarifying the methodological limits. Deeper sectoral analysis and integration of social dimensions will come in later phases of the model’s development. 

Much of the discussion turned around employment, where participants emphasized the value of looking beyond the net effects to distinguish jobs created, jobs transformed and jobs potentially affected by decarbonization. The exchanges also covered the anticipation of skills and retraining needs, attention to young people and women, territorial disparities, and the gradual integration of further dimensions such as health and distributional effects. 

These contributions set out clear orientations, both for the report now being finalized and for the model’s later development: 

  • Documenting assumptions more fully 
  • Setting out methodological limits and the precautions needed in interpreting results 
  • Deepening the employment analysis around structural transformation and reskilling 
  • Making the recommendations more operational 
  • Strengthening access to national data 

Participants also highlighted the value of supporting national institutions in using the results within their own planning processes, and of building on Morocco’s existing coordination mechanisms and platforms so that the model strengthens convergence between climate, economic and employment policies rather than duplicating existing initiatives.

Building national ownership

The workshop followed an introductory online session in May 2025 and technical training in September 2025, after which the HCP consolidated the model with support from the PAGE, through ILO, and from GWS, the research institute providing the technical modelling expertise. Housing JTAM in the HCP, Morocco’s national planning and statistics institution, means the analysis can serve several ministries and successive policy cycles, and reflects a wider shift in PAGE’s support to Morocco, from project-based interventions towards systemic policy transformation. 

The national stakeholders who took part have been invited to submit further written comments on the draft report, which the HCP will consolidate and incorporate into a revised version with PAGE support. The process will culminate in the presentation of the detailed findings and the formal handover of the model at the PAGE national Green Crossroads Conference in November 2026.

More details on the JTAM (published in 2025)

Funding Partners

  • Germany BMUV logo
  • AR 2025 - Finland Logo
  • AR 2025 - Norway Logo
  • AR 2025 - Korea Logo
  • AR 2025 - SIDA Logo
  • AR 2025 - Swiss Logo
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