Key findings from the PAGE Data Observatory (October 2020)

  • Among PAGE countries, Argentina, Peru, Brazil and India are seeing the highest number of daily new confirmed cases per million , with Argentina at 261, Peru at 103, Brazil at 61 and India at 51 cases by the end of September 2020.
     
  • The greatest decline in industrial production in PAGE countries was found in April, with up to a 90% percent decrease in production compared to 2019 in sectors such as electrical equipment and textiles in India and Peru.
     
  • Total manufacturing appears to be recovering since May 2020 in most PAGE countries , after a sharp drop in April 2020.
     
  • Within trade, imports are the hardest hit sector around March 2020, followed by exports to a lesser degree, with recovery happening in most PAGE countries since June 2020.
     
  • Employment declined in the 2nd Quarter of 2020 compared to last year, with women having larger decreases in employment than men. In PAGE countries where data is available, namely Peru, Brazil and Thailand, the aggregate decline in employment in Q2 of 2020 has resulted in more inactivity than unemployment.
     
  • Fiscal stimulus packages as share of GDP have also increased since March for several PAGE countries, with estimated shares of GDP at 6% for Argentina, 7% for China, 6.9% for India and 4.4% for Indonesia. Key fiscal measures include increased health spending, support for workers such as income support, health insurance and social assistance schemes, and cash transfers to low-income households.