PAGE and Cambridge Econometrics Model Economic Recovery Scenarios 

PAGE and Cambridge Econometrics (CE) have partnered to conduct a modeling exercise analyzing and comparing the potential immediate to long-term impacts of varying recovery scenarios. Focusing on multisectoral impacts, employment, resource-efficiency and nature, the analysis will specifically compare brown recovery scenarios and Inclusive Green Economy recovery scenarios - providing global guidance and messaging, supporting a future that would reverse current unsustainable practices.

The approach is two-fold: there will be research to provide global estimates, which can give broader messages regarding COVID-19 recovery scenarios, as well as research which focuses on two PAGE countries, to analyze spending plans and multisectoral impacts in detail, eventually providing targeted policy advice. 

CE will use its own global assessment model, E3ME, which will also receive inputs on the biodiversity components of the modelling scenarios, which will be provided by UNEP-WCMC.     

The E3ME model covers world GDP, CO2, energy, jobs and trade for around 40 industries in each country. Aggregating all countries and industries, E3ME will assess global social, economic and environmental outcomes of green vs brown recovery spending. With the bottom-up research, PAGE and CE plan to engage national stakeholders at the outset, building the national model in unison. Through this engagement on the national level, the goal is to provide a truly evidence-based analysis of alternative policies to reach inclusive green economy objectives, such as job gains, GDP and CO2 reductions. The input and output indicators will be defined by the respective government. 

This project is currently ongoing and scheduled for completion in December 2020 with the findings being reported in early 2021. For more information, please contact Marek Harsdorff, harsdorff@ilo.org or Ade Odegbileadebiyi.odegbile@un.org.

    

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